Why Noble will still be a 'marginal player' in China's crush industry

How long will it remain like this?

According to Nomura, Noble believes it will continue to remain a marginal player in China’s crush industry and is looking at possible partnerships to reduce ownership in this business.

It has seen crush margins improving globally, led by higher volumes and disciplined utilizations (lower utilization rates by market players to tackle excess capacity) but if crush margins continue to strengthen, excess supply may again come back to market.

Here's more from Nomura:

In sugar, the depreciating Brazilian Real is helping local margins (as costs are in Real) but because of hedging the benefits haven’t come to Noble’s P&L yet. As hedges roll off over the next few months, Noble would see the positive impact of the weaker currency.

Listed bigger sugar players are trading at premium valuations as the market believes smaller players will exit the industry and only cost competitive players will be able to gain market/profit share.

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