China's economy predicted to slow to 4.5%-7.5% annually
That's over the next decade.
According to RBC research report, weighing the cumulative effect of diverse influences, China is unlikely to prove capable of replicating past heroics. To the contrary, a continued deceleration in economic growth is likely, to an annual rate of 4.5% to 7.5% per year over the next decade.
Here's more from RBC:
China’s economy has sparkled for three decades, rising from a bit player to a starring role on the global stage. This raises two sets of issues. First, how important has China now become to the world? Second, can China keep up its searing growth rate?
The short answer to the first question is that China is already the world’s most important economy by some measures, though it lags substantially in its overall geopolitical clout. Worries of malevolent behaviour resulting from this newfound status are mostly unfounded.
The real global risk is simply that China’s growth stumbles.
With this in mind, we then investigate what enables China’s rapid economic growth. We reflect on the historic contributions of export growth and credit growth; on fading contributions from competitiveness, capital investment and demographics; on steady contributions from urbanization, the convergence effect and regulatory reform; on the threat posed by the looming middle-income trap; and on the opportunity presented by a growing consumer base.