
How low can India growth go?
Expect the Indian economy to grow even slower than 4Q11, the worst quarter in three years.
GDP expanded at a "disappointing" 6.1%, said RBS, and the weakness will persist due to restrictive borrowing costs and the lingering doubts on a full global rebound.
Here's more from RBS:
Growth is likely to remain weak going forward; higher borrowing costs have crimped economic activity, uncertainty over the global outlook remains and now we also have to throw higher oil prices into the mix. From a policy perspective, the weak GDP outcome, together with the recent moderation in wholesale price inflation and shortage of financial system liquidity should provide the RBI room to reduce the CRR this month, before it considers taking the knife to the repo rate in April. That said, rising oil prices do complicate the view – oil constitutes almost 30% of imports – and could give RBI cause to tread cautiously. The central bank is scheduled to meet on March 15, a day before the government announces its FY13 budget.