Thailand exports tumble again in July

Possibility of a rate cut grows by each poorly performing month.

BBVA reports that Thailand's exports dropped -4.5% y/y in July (consensus: -3.8% y/y) after falling by a revised -2.3% y/y the prior month.

"The weaker-than-expected outturn reflects a slump in demand from China and the EU, with shipments declining by -7.5% y/y and -21.4% y/y respectively. Imports, however, continue to grow strongly (July: +13.7% y/y)," it said.

"Though Thailand's 2Q GDP outturn was stronger than expected, recent high-frequency activity indicators are weakening. Given the threat to the recovery after last year’s flooding, the chances of a rate cut are increasing (the Bank of Thailand's next meeting is on September 5)," it added.