Thailand's public debt grows 9.8% in 2012

The figures will be stablizing at 7.5% by 2016.

According to Dr. Trairong Suwankiri, Public Debt will be at 8.4% in 2013 and will stabilize at 7.5% until 2016.

Dr. Somkid Jatusripitak, the Former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, estimates that a GDP growth of 3% pa would put PD/GDP ratio at 52%. He also pointed out that slowdown in Thailand's export would be augmented by the rising trade with the ASEAN in the next 3-5 years as the ASEAN moves towards the 2015 ASEAN Economic Integration.

Here's more from Maybank Kim Eng Thailand:

Thai Public Debt: “Thailand’s Public Debt: National Interest or a Time Bomb” was the discussion point in the forum sponsored by Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation under the Ministry of Finance. Former Deputy PM, Minister of Commerce and Minister of Labor & Social Welfare, Dr. Trairong Suwankiri, puts out an estimate of Public Debt growing 9.8% in 2012, 8.4% in 2013 and then stabilizing at 7.5% until 2016.With this trajectory PD/GDP ratio will be 53.6% and the debt burden as a ratio to expenditure budget is about 11.6% vs 9.3% in 2012.

Meanwhile, Dr. Somkid Jatusripitak, the Former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, estimates that a GDP growth of 3% pa would put PD/GDP ratio at 52%. Dr. Somkid also pointed out that the slow economic growth in the US and China would not provide the environment conducive for growth of Thailand's export, but this could be partly offset by the increased trade with the ASEAN during the next 3-5 years as the region moves towards the 2015 ASEAN Economic Integration.

In Dr. Somkid’s observation the Thai government’s disbursement is focused not on the kind of investments that would boost productivity as evidenced weakening budget for investments. This is unlike China that has increased its investment on machinery and this should translate into improved productivity.

In the context of AEC 2015, Dr. Somkid opines that any ASEAN who achieves to be the hub will reap the most benefit from the integration. However, he thinks that Thailand is not ready to develop/change the related laws and regulations to promote its competitive position for the leading role during the period integration.

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