What the jump in the official 2013 GDP growth forecast means for Singapore

Will it be further raised?

According to Nomura, for the full year, the official 2013 GDP growth forecast was raised to 2.5-3.5% from 1-3%, painting a more robust picture. This shows that the government is looking for a decent growth rebound in H2 to around 4.0%, twice the pace of H1.

In the press release, it highlighted that the growth outlook will “improve slightly,” on a gradual pickup in the global economy. Export-oriented sectors are expected to “provide support to growth” while domestic-oriented sectors will likely “remain resilient”.

Here's more from Nomura:

Despite the significant upgrade by the government, we think the forward guidance still seems still fairly cautious. The statement emphasized downside risks, particularly a slowdown in China and a disorderly adjustment from the Fed‟s tapering of monetarystimulus; Singapore is highly exposed to both of these scenarios.

In addition, the government lowered its forecast for non-oil domestic export growth to 0-1% from 2-4%.

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