Chart of the Day: This graph shows some good news for Singapore industrial output

Global indicators are getting better.

According to CIMB, the latest Jul-Aug13 MPI of +3.3% yoy is encouraging (2Q13: +1.3% yoy) and is supportive of a firmer yoy 3Q13 GDP growth. 

The government will release the preliminary 3Q13 GDP no later than 14 Oct 2013.

Here's more from CIMB:

Assuming another month of modest Sep MPI growth (3-5% yoy growth is possible because of the low base as Sep 12 MPI declined 3.6% yoy) and assuming the service sector grows at a similar clip as in 3Q13 (5-5.5% yoy), the advance 3Q13 GDP is likely to come in at 4.3-4.5% yoy (2Q13 GDP: 3.8%).

This will lift the Jan-Sep 13 GP growth to about 3%, right in the middle of the government’s 2013 growth target of 2.5-3.5%.

Although the economic growth is likely to expand by more than 4% yoy in 3Q13, a sequential decline of about 2% qoq annualised (SAAR) is likely after the nearly 16% qoq SAAR rebound in 2Q13 (1Q13: +1.7%).

The sequential slippage in 3Q13 is due mainly to a 5-6% qoq fall in the goods sector growth. Given the choppy growth profile and the still-uncertain outlook for the coming six months, the MAS is probably going to maintain its present S$NEER policy when it releases its Oct monetary policy statement.

A loosening bias is unlikely considering the inflationary bias inherent in the government’s policy to maintain a tight grip on the supply of foreign labour force in an environment of full resident employment.