Chart of the Day: See how electronics is August NODX’s darkest spot

NODX could have gone up way higher without it.

NODX rose a better-than-expected 6.0% yoy (+7.6% mom sa) in Aug, up from -3.3% yoy (+2.5% mom sa) in Jul, boosted by petrochemicals (+39.9%), pharmaceuticals (+26.9%) and volatile structures of ships and boats (+1338%).
According to OCBC Macroviews, this marked the first positive on-year print since Feb 2014, but electronics exports remained weak (-6.9% yoy). NODX excluding electronics would have grown 12.1% yoy.

OCBC adds that across the key NODX markets, NODX rose for 7 of the top 10 markets, aided by South Korea (+41.2% yoy), Taiwan (+21.1%) and China (+5.8%), whereas HK (-30.1%), Japan (-6.9%) and Thailand (-6.8%) remained in the doldrums. This suggests that the global demand recovery is still less than broad-based.

Overall, an encouraging improvement in Aug which bodes well for 2H growth momentum, albeit OCBC hopes to see a more convincing recovery in electronics exports going forward. For the full year, our NODX growth forecast is still a modest contraction on-year.

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