Singapore economy to grow by up to 2.5% in 2012

The economy grew by a mere 1.3% in 3Q12.

According to a release, based on advance estimates, the Singapore economy grew at a modest pace of 1.3 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter of 2012, compared to 2.3 per cent growth in the previous quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy contracted by 1.5 per cent, compared to the 0.2 per cent expansion in the second quarter.

Economic growth in the second quarter was better than expected, resulting in an upward revision of quarter-on-quarter annualised growth from the preliminary estimates of -0.7 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

The revision was due to new data from the construction sector, which registered higher certified progress payments from private sector industrial and residential projects.

As a result, growth of the construction sector was significantly stronger at 14.3 per cent in the second quarter, compared to the preliminary estimates of 0.9 per cent growth.  

The pullback in quarter-on-quarter growth momentum in the third quarter was mainly due to contraction in the manufacturing sector. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector declined by an annualised rate of 3.9 per cent, following the 0.1 per cent contraction in the preceding quarter.

This largely reflected the decline in output of the electronics cluster. On a year-on-year basis, the manufacturing sector grew by 0.7 per cent compared to the 4.6 per cent increase in the second quarter.

The construction sector grew by 8.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter, moderating from 10.1 per cent in the preceding quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector contracted by an annualised rate of 7.5 per cent. This was largely due to a decline in private sector building activities.

Services producing industries rose by 1.1 per cent on a year-on-year basis, following the 0.9 per cent growth in the previous quarter.

On a quarter-onquarter basis, the services producing industries grew by an annualised rate of 0.1 per cent, compared to the 0.4 per cent decline in the preceding quarter. This was mainly due to higher levels of activity in the finance and insurance sector as well as other services sectors.

For the rest of the year, growth could be weighed down by the subdued global economic conditions. Externally-oriented sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade will be affected by the slowdown in advanced economies.

However, there will be modest support to growth from healthy expansion in the transport engineering cluster and construction sector. The Singapore economy remains on track to grow by 1.5 to 2.5 per cent in 2012.