Singapore NODX rebounds to 7.9% for the first time in two months

Thanks to shipments to the US.

According to Maybank Kim Eng, NODX growth in Oct 2012 rebounded for the first time in two months to +7.9% YoY. Compared to the previous month, the seasonally adjusted growth contracted by -1.2%. For the first ten months of this year, NODX was up by +2.7% YoY.

Here's more from Maybank Kim Eng:

On non-electronics exports as electronics exports fell further. Nonelectronic exports growth accelerated to +12.7% YoY as Pharmaceuticals shipments gained by +2.7% YoY to reverse the drops in the preceding two months while Petrochemicals exports increased further by +4.2% YoY (Sep 2012: +5.2% YoY).

Electronics exports fell for a third consecutive month, although at a much slower pace (Oct 2012: -0.8% YoY; Sep 2012: -16.6% YoY) on  declines in PC Parts (Oct 2012: -21.0% YoY; Sep 2012: -27.9% YoY) and Diode & Transistors (Oct 2012: -12.5% YoY; Sep 2012: -21.8% YoY) that offset the rebound in IC Parts (Oct 2012: +26.5% YoY; Sep 2012: -7.8% YoY) and increases in the exports of Telecom Equipment (Oct 2012: +33.9% YoY; Sep 2012: +18.1% YoY) and Consumer Electronics (Oct 2012: +26.9% YoY; Sep 2012: +7.6% YoY).

By markets, the rebound was driven by the US, Hong Kong and EU. Top contributor was the +48% YoY (Sep 2012: -7.2% YoY) surge in exports to the US amid improvement in economic conditions, although the recent super storm “Sandy” which affected the US East Coast may put a dent to the numbers over the next couple of months.

Hong Kong was the second largest contributor with a +15.6% YoY growth (Sep 2012: -17.0% YoY). Meanwhile, shipments to the EU rebounded (Oct 2012: +8.9% YoY; Sep 2012: -15.7% YoY) after three consecutive months of contractions. NODX to the other top-10 markets – which are essentially East Asia – were mixed i.e. gains in exports to China (Oct 2012: +6.7% YoY; Sep 2012: +1.5% YoY), Japan (Oct 2012: +2.7% YoY; Sep 2012: +3.4% YoY), Taiwan (Oct 2012: +23.8% YoY; Sep 2012: +18.0% YoY), Indonesia (Oct 2012: +7.6% YoY; Sep 2012: -1.0% YoY) and Thailand (Oct 2012: +6.0% YoY; Sep 2012: - 13.9% YoY) but declines in exports to South Korea (Oct 2012: -1.5% YoY; Sep 2012: -8.7% YoY) and Malaysia (Oct 2012: -6.8% YoY; Sep 2012: -19.0% YoY).

Official NODX growth forecasts lowered. International Enterprise Singapore (IES) cut its 2012 NODX growth forecast to 2%-3% from the previous 4%-5% on the back of weaker numbers during 3Q 2012. For 2013, growth is expected to come in at 2%-4%. Our 2012 and 2013  forecasts for NODX growth are also at low single-digit levels i.e. 3.8% and 5% respectively.