Singapore's 1Q13 GDP growth could sink by a wee 0.1%

It'll be the weakest performance since 3Q12.

According to OCBC, after disappointing and lackluster manufacturing data for Jan–Feb 2013, it expects Q1 GDP growth at a tepid -0.1% yoy (+2.5% qoq saar), relative to the +1.5% yoy (+3.3% qoq saar) seen in Q4 2012. 

If this materializes, it would be the weakest quarterly performance since Q3 2012 (at 0% yoy and -4.6% qoq saar).

Manufacturing output had shrunk 8.3% yoy for the first two months, dragged down by weakness in both the electronics (-12.0% yoy) and non-electronics (-6.5% yoy), particularly pharmaceuticals.

Here's more from OCBC:

However, the global semiconductors book-to-bill ratio improved from a recent low of 0.75 in October 2012 to 1.10 in February, and we expect the domestic manufacturing sector to revert to positive on-year growth in H2. Our full-year GDP growth forecast remains at 2% yoy.

Private home prices rose by a more moderate 0.5% qoq in Q1 2013, down from +1.8% qoq in Q4 2012, while bank loans reaccelerated to 19.6% yoy (+2.1 mom) in Feb, notwithstanding the CNY festive season as both business & consumer loans picked up.

Inflation remains sticky and we do not expect any change at the upcoming monetary policy review.

The recent $3.1b 5-year SGS bond auction fetched an average yield of 0.48% with a bid-cover ratio of 1.7x. The next SGS issue is a 7-year re-opening (not a benchmark bond) on 3 June.