
What analysts fear the most about Asian risk assets in the near-term
It won't be a good 2H13.
According to OCBC, their assumed time-frame is that the Fed will begin to taper QE3, likely in September, and possibly to the tune of up to half of the current US$85b monthly purchases, and halt completely by mid-2014 assuming that the economic data continues to hold up, especially on the US housing and labor market front.
However, actual interest rates remain a distant prospect and could only materialize in early 2015.
Here's more from OCBC:
Nevertheless, any short-term pullback in longer-dated bond yields mark a good opportunity to hedge interest rate exposure against the clear risks of further upward pressure on rates going forward.
Along the same theme, the allure of QE tapering is likely to benefit the USD and continue exert its influence on Asian currencies.
With the narrowing of longer-tenor bond yield differentials, and dwindling FX reserves for some Asian economies, local currency government bonds could also lose their shine in the current environment.
Without the strong China story and strong Asian growth outperformance, it could be challenging to see global asset allocation continuing to favour this part of the world in the near term.
As such, while we remain constructive on risk in the second half of 2013, we remain slightly cautious on Asian risk assets in the near-term as investors adjust to the inflection point for the US economy and USD-denominated markets.