Why January NODX's 3.3% drop is just a downside blip

Pullback is expected, says anlayst.

According to DBS, January's non-oil domestic exports fell by 3.3% YoY (Consensus: -1.2%, DBS: -2.3%). While the decline has been sharper than thought, this pullback is expected.

According to DBS senior economist Irvin Seah, though it looks peculiar that NODX will worsen despite the strong showing in Jan13 PMI numbers and improving global economic conditions, it pays to note that this month’s decline has more to do with short term seasonal factors rather than underlying fundamentals.

Plainly, the Chinese New Year lull has suppressed export performance, which has been manifested in the hard NODX numbers. In contrast, the pick-up in PMIs (50.5 in Jan, up from 49.7 in Dec) reflects the general optimism for manufacturers as they look beyond the near term seasonal lull. That’s sentiment driven and more forward looking.

So, January’s NODX is nothing more than a downside blip. It doesn’t imply a worsening in global demand or impending risk ahead. Instead, look to a fairly healthy export performance in the coming months, which will come on the back of the improving economic conditions.

Also Read

Singapore ranks second in global economic freedom

Economists forecast modest NODX growth for Singapore in 2024

Since you're here...

...there are many ways you can work with us to advertise your company and connect to your customers. Our team can help you dight and create an advertising campaign, in print and digital, on this website and in print magazine.

We can also organize a real life or digital event for you and find thought leader speakers as well as industry leaders, who could be your potential partners, to join the event. We also run some awards programmes which give you an opportunity to be recognized for your achievements during the year and you can join this as a participant or a sponsor.

Let us help you drive your business forward with a good partnership!

I want to download the media kit