Price famine for commodity producers in early 2012
New lows expected in Q1, before rebounding midway through next year.
Base metals are particularly vulnerable to price drops, while precious metals will prove most resilient.
Here's more from Standard Chartered:
| 2012 will be a good year for commodity producers, even as markets continue to climb the wall of worry. We may see commodity prices printing their lows for next year in Q1-2012, with the weakest y/y GDP growth expected to be in that quarter. Our economists forecast that world GDP growth will be relatively stronger in Q2-2012, with a follow-through uptrend in H2-2012. We expect commodity prices to be forward-looking and will likely finish Q1-2012 higher than at the beginning of the quarter. We expect precious metals to perform better than other commodity sectors going into Q1-2012. |
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