
Why Keppel isn't spooked by China, Korean rival yards
They have yet to prove themselves.
According to Nomura, China yards need to prove capabilities, long-term financing business model is not sustainable. Chinese yards have still not been able to prove their capabilities given a relatively weak track record of finishing projects within budget and time.
As such, most of the order strength at Chinese yards comes from speculative orders and long-term financing with minimal profitability.
Here's more from Nomura:
We do not see this as a sustainable business model in long-term.
Korean yards could go back to drill-ships/containers once orders recover. For Korean yards, we believe current interest in Jack-up space might be because orders for drill-ships and containers/large vessels have been slow so far in 2013.
With free yard-space at the moment, and continued strength in Jack-up rig orders, we think Koreans are likely competing for orders only to keep yards occupied.
Longer-term, we believe Korean yards are likely to revert to drill-ships, containers and other larger vessels which have significantly higher revenues and lack of meaningful competition from China or Singapore at the moment.