Airlines better pray the Eurozone crisis doesn’t blow up

If it does, losses over $8b await the aviation industry globally in 2012.

According to the International Air Transport Association, profitability for 2011 remains weak but unchanged at $6.9 billion for a net margin of 1.2%. Looking ahead to 2012, IATA downgraded its central forecast for airline profits from $4.9 billion to $3.5 billion for a net margin of 0.6%.

“The biggest risk facing airline profitability over the next year is the economic turmoil that would result from a failure of governments to resolve the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Such an outcome could lead to losses of over $8 billion—the largest since the 2008 financial crisis,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Meanwhile for Asia Pacific, IATA reported:

• Asia-Pacific carriers also saw stronger though varied trading conditions. Japan’s domestic market still has not fully recovered from the March earthquake and tsunami, and load factors remain under pressure. By contrast airlines have improved load factors and profitability on China’s expanding domestic market. We have upgraded our forecast for the region by $800 million to a $3.3 billion profit. This is the largest absolute profit among the regions.

• Asia-Pacific carriers are expected to deliver the largest absolute profit at $2.1 billion. This is weaker than 2011’s performance but the deterioration is limited by high load factors on markets such as China, where the increases in demand are structural and to some extent shielded from the cycle.

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