India exports decline for the first time in 30 months

It fell sharp 7.1% YoY in March compared with February's growth.

According to provisional trade data released by Ministry of Commerce, seasonally adjusted exports fell 5.9% MoM in March 2012 compared with a drop of 1.2% MoM in February 2012. On a YoY basis, exports fell a sharp 7.1% YoY in March, the first decline in 30 months, compared with growth of 4.2% YoY in February 2012. Further, there has been revision to the export growth for Apr-Feb 2012 to 24.9% vs. the 21.4% reported earlier. On an annual basis, export growth decelerated to 20.9% YoY in F2012 compared with growth of 40.5% YoY in F2011. Within exports, petroleum and oil products grew the most, up 38.5% YoY, followed by marine products, leather, drugs and pharmaceuticals and manmade yards and fabrics, amongst others.

Here’s more from Morgan Stanley:

Import growth remains steady

On a seasonally adjusted basis, imports fell 2.5% MoM in March 2012 compared with growth of 0.2% MoM in February 2012. On a YoY basis, import growth (in dollar terms) remained steady at 24.2% YoY in March 2012 compared with 24.3% YoY in February. Further, there was an upward revision to import growth for Apr-Feb 2012 to 33% vs. the 29.4% reported earlier. On an annual basis, import growth accelerated to 32.1% YoY in F2012 compared with growth of 28.2% YoY in F2011. Within imports, coal grew the most at 80.3% YoY, followed by fertilizer (59%), vegetable oil (47.5%), POL (46.9%), and gold and silver (44.4%), amongst others.

Trade deficit narrowed in March

Trade deficit for March narrowed to US$13.9bn (9% of GDP annualized) compared to US$16.4bn the previous month (10.7% of GDP annualized). The narrowing of trade deficit in March reflects seasonal improvement; however, the extent of the seasonal improvement was minimal, as evidenced by the 309% YoY growth in the deficit. On a 12-month trailing basis, the trade deficit widened to -9.9% of GDP in March compared to -9.4% of GDP in February. The trade deficit for Apr-Feb was revised upward to -US$171bn from -US$167bn reported earlier. For F2012, trade deficit widened to a record-high of US$184.9bn (9.9% of GDP) compared with a deficit of US$118.7bn (7.1% of GDP) in F2011.

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