Manufacturing growth forecast at 6% in 2011:OCBC

OCBC retains their forecast for 2011 manufacturing growth despite the 3.1% yoy decline last month.

According to OCBC, the CNy festive season probably played a key factor in the pullback of industrial production growth, but the main concern is that external demand may be slowing.

Also, the Japanese problems, especially the rolling power shortages and logistical disruptions may compound going forward.

OCBC believes that their H2 manufacturing growth estimates are sufficiently conservative and hence retain their 2011 manufacturing and GDP growth forecast at 6.0% yoy and 5.0% respectively - versus 7.15% and 5.4% for the latest FocusEconomics Consensus survey and 5.9% and 5.7% for the recent MAS survey of professional forecasters.